Industrial production in January declined 10.3 percent from the same month last year, due mainly to extremely weak domestic demand in almost all sectors, the notable exceptions being semiconductors and shipbuilding. Production decreased 9.8 percent from December's levels, hit by sluggish business in all areas other than office and computer-related equipment.

Production in the heavy and chemical sector sank 7.7 percent while output in light industry dropped by 19.6 percent. Bright spots included the heavy and chemical industry category, where production of other transportation equipment and office, computer and accounting-related goods was up 5.3, and 15.3 percent respectively, while output from audio-video and communications equipment makers increased by 7.0 percent on a year-to-year basis. Production of assembly metal goods and other machinery and equipment, though, decreased 29.1 percent while the output from makers of watches, medical and optical goods fell 26.8 percent, and that from automobile and trailer producers declined by 19.1 percent during the same period. Overall production in the heavy and chemical sector declined 7.7 percent from a year earlier.

In the light industry sector, production of bags, leather goods and shoes contracted by 43.7 percent, while wood and related products together with clothing and fur goods output decreased 24.6 percent. The decline in the production of furniture and other manufacturing industry reached 23.5 percent.
In all, total production in January by the light industry sector fell by 19.6 percent on a year-to-year basis.

Forwarding Sharply Declines in January

Due to slackening domestic demand in almost all areas, forwarding of manufacturers'goods in January decreased overall by 7.2 percent on a year earlier, despite the steady rise in forwarding for export purposes. Forwarding for exports rose 28.3 percent, the largest such increase since April, 1997. Forwarding for domestic markets, meanwhile, contracted by 20.6 percent.

                        pro.jpg (19441 bytes)


Inventories Growth Rates Remain Dull

Inventories as of the end of January remained at 1.2 percent following a sharp decline in production, despite a drastic drop in forwarding in areas such as automobiles, machinery, and clothing amid continuing weak domestic demand. Product areas where inventories registered sharp increases included cigarettes (up 22.1 percent) automobiles and trailers (up 19.7 percent), cokes and oil refined goods (up 12.3 percent) and other electric machinery (up 16.1 percent).

Inventories in assembly metal goods (off 17.0 percent), paper goods (off 9.4 percent), textile goods (off 11.7 percent), clothes and fur goods (off 10.0 percent) and audio-video and communications equipment (off 8.8 percent), meanwhile, marked contractions.

Average Operating Rate in Manufacturing Sector Drops to 63.8 Pct.

The average operating rate in the manufacturing sector fell by 16.2 percent in January compared to a year earlier, as production declined in almost all industrial sectors except semiconductors. In particular, automobile and machinery equipment manufacturers registered sharp declines in production.

Compared with December, the operating rate was also down, in this case by 10.3 percent. By industry, machinery equipment (down 32 percent), assembly metal goods (down 34.1 percent), automobiles (down 19.8 percent) and food beverages (down 18.6 percent) registered contractions in their utilization of capacity. The outstanding exception to the trend was the semiconductor industry where the operating rate marked a 13.1 percent increase.

Total production capacity marked a slight increase of 1.1 percent over December, but contracted even more slightly on a year-to-year basis by 0.4 percent, due mainly to drastic slashes in facility investment.
In the meantime, the average operating rate in the manufacturing sector, showing the utilization ratio of production facilities, dropped to the record low of 63.8 percent in January.

Construction Orders Register Sharp Drop in Jan.

Orders received by the nation's major 250 construction companies from the private sector for projects such as offices, factories and warehouses decreased drastically in January, while those from the public sector slightly dropped compared with the same month last year. Cumulative orders dwindled by 19.3 percent on a year-to-year basis to 2.1 trillion won.

Contracts for Machinery Decline 31.1 Pct

The total value of contracts received by the country's 186 major machinery makers at 1.12 trillion won in January represented a decrease of 31.1 percent from the same month a year earlier. The falloff was due largely to a decrease in order issuance from the public and manufacturing sectors, particularly in this regard from automobile and assembly machinery manufacturers.
Meanwhile, machinery imports dropped 47.3 percent from the same month last year and the forwarding of such goods for the domestic market also declined, registering a 32.6 percent contraction over the same period.

Consumption

The economic crisis continued to impact on domestic consumption, which remained extremely sluggish in both the retail and wholesale sectors, registering a 8.7 percent fall in January and continuing the downward trend marked by the 4.9 percent drop in December. This represents the sharpest fall since April, 1982 when consumption decreased 11.7 percent. In the wholesale area, consumption dropped 4.4 percent in January compared to a year earlier.

Consumption of office and computer-related goods (up 21.6 percent), medical goods (up 15.1 percent) and clothing (up 8.3 percent) rose while those of chemical products (off 20.3 percent) and fishery products (off 21.6 percent) fell. Consumption in the retail sector registered an 8.8 percent falloff, a reflection of torpid demand for food and other groceries (off 15.8 percent), home appliances (off 14 percent) and department store sales (off 11.5 percent), despite relatively booming sales of sports goods and toys (up 9.7 percent), and other general retail sales items (up 9.2 percent). In the meantime, vehicle fuel sales were down 27.7, impacted by the drastic decline in sales of automobiles (off 54.8 percent).

Forwarding of consumer products for the domestic market decreased 18.6 percent in January from a year earlier, due to plummeting demand for consumer durables such as passenger cars (off 67.9 percent) and large-size refrigerators (off 33.7 percent). Demand for durables dwindled by 23.2 percent in total. Sales of consumable products like gasoline (off 27.7 percent) and ready-made clothing (off 25.9 percent) declined 17 percent over the same period. Imports of consumer goods in January contracted 47.5 percent from the same month last year in the face of dampened consumer sentiments following a string of major corporate bankruptcies and a rise in unemployment.

Exports    Exports in February Continued to Rise Due to Large Shipments of Heavy & Chemical Products
   

Exports in February rose 21.6 percent in January on a year-to-year basis, reaching $11.39 billion. Shipments of light industrial goods such as textiles, tires and heavy and chemical products like semiconductors and automobiles posted booming shipments. Exports by the entire light industry sector dipped by three percent in January, the second consecutive month of decline. The heavy and chemical industries meanwhile experienced an upturn in exports following a rise in overseas sales of automobiles and chemical products, despite continued declines in steel and electrical and electronic goods. On balance, total exports in January rose, but only by 0.3 percent to reach $9.06 billion.

Imports      Imports Continue to Decline Falling 29.5 Pct. in Feb.

Imports in February amounted to $8.1 billion in February, a decrease of 29.5 percent from the corresponding period last year, as purchases of raw material, capital and consumer goods dropped drastically as a result of the ongoing economic slowdown. In addition, the import of raw material essential to exports also decreased 29.5 percent to $8.1 billion as Korean banks, wary of the financial situation, refused to open letters of credit for importers.

In the meantime, the devaluation of the won against the U.S. dollar hit hard imports of consumer goods such as beef, cigarettes and durable goods including television sets and automobiles, their levels dwindling in January to half what they were in the same month a year ago. Capital goods imports posted a 41.8 percent decline, while those of raw material declined 36.1 percent. In particular, imports of key materials for light industry such as hides, wood and fabric material, marked a sharp decrease. Imports cumulatively decreased in January by $7.55 billion, down 39.6 percent from a year earlier.
Electrical and Electronic Goods
ecos1.gif (4494 bytes)Exports of Electrical and Electronics Goods Decline

The exports of electronics products amounted to $2,882 million in January, a decrease of 7.7 percent from a year earlier, reflecting continuing low sales of home appliances, industrial electronics products and related components in the weakened currency markets of Southeast Asia. Shipments of electronic home appliances, in particular, registered a drastic decline of 33.3 percent to $394 million, edged by lackluster sales of color television sets, VCRs and audio-video goods. Industrial electronic goods exports also declined; they fell 2.3 percent to $680 million as a result mainly of torpid sales of computers and peripheral products. The overseas sales of electrical components, boosted by semiconductors like the 64M-DRAM and other non-memory chips, reached $1,808 million, a 1.5 percent increase on January 1997. Exports of semiconductors rose 2.2 percent to $1,296 million in the same period.

Domestic computer makers have begun to focus their efforts on boosting sales of low-priced products to cope with the national retrenchment engendered in response to impact of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) financial assistance program. Samsung Electronics is developing marketing tactics to this end, and Trigem Computer has launched a program under which clients swap their old models for new ones. Other computer makers like LG, IBM and Daewoo have also marked down their computers by 10 to 15 percent.

Electronic Goods Trends
(US$ million, % change from previous month)
elec.jpg (6506 bytes)
. '97.1
Exports
-Home appliances
-Industrial
-Parts
3,123 (-10.5)
   591 (10.5)
   696 (-18.4)
1,836 (-12.7)
. '97.12
Exports
-Home appliances
-Industrial
-Parts
3,193 (-9.3)
  428 (-12.8)
  767 (-7.7)
1,998 (-9.1)
. '98.1
Exports
-Home appliances
-Industrial
-Parts
2,882 (-14.5)
  394 (-26.3)
  680 (-14.8)
1,808 (-14.4)

Automobiles
ecos2.gif (5422 bytes)Auto Makers Focus on Exports to Cope With Low Domestic Demand

Automobile Trends
(Cars,% change from previous month)

(Since 1996, Knockdowns excluded)
auto.jpg (11075 bytes)
. '97.1
Production
Domestic Sales
Exports
140,239 (-39.4)
  77,404 (-54.4)
  40,731 (-66.3)
. '97.11
Production
Domestic Sales
Exports
249,359 (-9.3)
112,081 (-10.1)
129,958 (11.5)
. '97.12
Production
Domestic Sales
Exports
198,815 (-20.3)
100,113 (-10.7)
147,319 (13.4)
. '98.1
Production
Domestic Sales
Exports
123,578 (-37.8)
45,072 (-55.0)
48,157 (-67.3)

Automobile production recorded a 11.9 percent decline to 123,000 units in January, as manufacturers slashed production to match falling domestic demand. Domestic consumption of cars was down 41.7 percent from the same month last year at 45,000 units, consumer sentiment remaining frozen in the face of anxiety over possible unemployment and a rise in transportation taxes.
Domestic sales of small-sized cars rose 68.3 percent in January from a year earlier, due to their low operating cost. In particular, sales of new models like the Atoz surged during the period. However, sales of cars larger than mid-size declined 59.1 percent from January last year despite intense marketing campaigns on their behalf by the car companies. Sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles dropped 46.1 percent and 27.2 percent, respectively. In this latter category, buses sales fell by 22.4 percent and those of trucks, 31.8 percent. Vehicle exports rose to 48,000 units, a 18.2 percent increase over January 1997's totals. The increase was a result of the strengthened price competitiveness of locally-manufactured cars mainly in Western Europe, North America, Latin America and the Middle East. Intense promotion by local car makers and the depreciation of the Korean won contributed to the increasing shipments, despite the fact banks in general refused to issue credit bills to the exporters. Overseas sales of passenger cars surged 1.5 percent from the same month while those of commercial vehicles soared by 135.1 percent in the same period.
Steel
ecos3.gif (4102 bytes)Steel Production Declines

Production of crude steel goods reached only 3,392,000 M/T in January, a 2.1 percent decrease from a year earlier. Production from electrical furnaces dropped 7.5 percent to 3,392,000M/T, following a fall in the operating rate which was prompted by a sharp rise in the price of imported raw material.
The production of steel goods from revolving furnaces, however, rose to 2,116,000M/T representing a 1.5 percent increase over January 1997's total.
Consumption of steel goods declined by purchasing industries such as automobiles, construction and electronic home appliances fell as their output contracted. Sales of cold-rolled steel boards, in particular, decreased 36.8 percent on a year-to-year basis, due to the decline in automobile production.
In addition, sales of hot coils are anticipated to have decreased 20 percent in January compared to the same month last year as manufacturers of steel pipes and cold-rolled steel boards have slashed their production. Meanwhile, in the same month, steel exports rose slightly by 4.7 percent from January 1997's levels, while imports fell to $427 million, down 20.4 percent on a year-to-year basis.

Steel Trends
(1,000 M/T, US$ million, % change from previous month)
seel.jpg (9167 bytes)
. '97.1
Production
Exports
3,465 (3.1)
   491 (-15.5)
. '97.11
Production
Exports
3,770 (-1.8)
   572 (-22.8)
. '97.12
Production
Exports
3,776 (0.1)
   505 (-21.2)
. '98.1
Production
Exports
3,392 (10.2)
   514 (-11.5)

Textiles
ecos4.gif (5729 bytes)Textile Exports Increase, Boosted by Price Competitiveness

The exports of textile products surged to $1,348 million in January, up 4.3 percent from a year earlier. The increase is mainly due to booming sales of polyester goods, chemical F yarn, clothing and other related manufactured goods as a result of their heightened price competitiveness following the depreciation of the won against U.S. dollar.

Regarding exports of textile material, the value of overseas sales of polyester staple fiber in January shrank 7.4 percent compared to a year earlier. The contraction was due to weakening export prices which impacted adversely on profits from overseas markets. Exports of textile yarns, however, increased 19.1 percent to $168 million, as domestic original yarn makers moved to expand exports.

Shipments to the United States and European Union continued to increase, boosted in the main by booming sales of chemical F yarns and fabric goods. Shipments to developing nations particularly in Southeast Asia dwindled as the Korean won,
despite its devaluation against the U.S. dollar, continued to remain high against local currencies.

Total textile imports decreased 33.9 percent to $285 million as a result of the general lackluster domestic demand for textile products and the devaluation of the won on currency markets which has served to boost the price of foreign-made goods.
Shipbuilding
ecos5.gif (5313 bytes)Contracts Evade Shipbuilders Due to Financial Crunch

The financial crunch still gripping the nation has also dashed the hopes of shipbuilders to strike new contracts. Overseas ship owners have refused to issue new orders on account of the nation's reduced credit rating while local banks have hesitated to open letters of credit to Korean builders. Contracts in December 1997 reached 613,000 G/T, but no orders were received by the industry in January although Japanese firms won orders for 13 ships amounting to 615,000 G/T during the same period.

Nine ships were completed in January amounting to 403,000 G/T, a 37.6 percent increase over the same month last year while shipbuilding for the whole of 1997 rose 4.5 percent on 1996's totals to 7,449,000 G/T. The backlog of unfilled orders climbed to 17,821,000 G/T for 296 ships in January, up 36.7 percent from a year earlier, of which 55.1 percent or 9,811,000 G/T were for tankers.
General Machinery
ecos6.gif (4672 bytes)Imports Slump on Account of Lower Facility Investment

The value of machinery contracts placed in January was down 31.1 percent on the same month last year due to weak demand from both the public and private sectors. Dampened investment sentiment due to the economic slowdown has led also to a 29.9 percent decrease from December. In the private sector, low order issuance from the automobile (off 21.3 percent) assembly machinery (off 48.4 percent), and construction industries (off 56.5 percent) has contributed to the overall deterioration the business climate. Exports in January rose to $466 million, up 1.2 percent from the same month last year. Although domestic goods enjoyed a sharpened price-competitive edge due to the depreciation of the won and aggressive market expansion efforts by exporting companies, weak demand in the Southeast Asian market largely curbed export promotion. Shipments of textile, farming and construction and mining machinery fell by 10.8, 24.9 and 15.1 percent, respectively, while those of chemical plant registered a surge of 248.3 percent  from a year earlier. Exports of manufacturing metal tools, and lifting and air-conditioning machinery rose between 19.4 and 35.1 percent in the same period.

Imports of similar goods, affected by the contraction in facility investment, reached only $624 million, down 54.9 percent from the corresponding period last year. Product categories in which imports recorded drops of more than 50 percent included textiles, forklifts, and manufacturing and chemical machinery. The trade deficit in general machinery thus narrowed to $158 million, down 82.9 percent from the year-earlier period.

Domestic machinery makers are moving to explore overseas markets in response to conditions of extremely poor domestic consumption. Industry observers foresee the nation being able to achieve a 15.2 percent increase in exports in 1998 to $1.14 billion, as the price competitiveness for major items like excavators and wheel loaders has increased on account of the continuing low value of the won on currency markets. Construction machinery manufacturers this year plan to expand production above the 2.5 trillion won level, a five percent increase over last year.

Machinery Trends
(US$ million, % change from previous month)
machin.jpg (6155 bytes)
. '97.1
Production
460 (-51.3)
. '97.12
Production
898 (18.4)
. '98.1
Production
466 (50.7)

Petrochemical Industry
ecos7.gif (5203 bytes)Low Demand and Production Continue in Petrochemical Ind.

Although the petrochemical industry increased production in January, business was sluggish due to the financial crisis and torpid production trends in client industries. Operating levels on synthetic resin, synthetic textile material and synthetic rubber production lines remained low compared with the same month last year but total production rose slightly to 1,117,000 tons in January, a 6.7 percent increase from a year earlier. In spite of the rise in production, however, forwarding for domestic purposes declined 12.2 percent from a year earlier and 16.0 percent from the month before, as the financial crunch continued to impact on processing manufacturers.

In particular, the production of synthetic resin and rubber decreased drastically by 26.1 and 23.0 percent, respectively, on a year-to-year basis. In a drive to clear excessive inventories and raise ready cash, manufacturers have focused their energies on overseas sales, achieving a 43.2 percent growth in exports compared to January 1997. However, despite their recent success in exports, the fall in product prices on international markets is expected to take its toll on manufacturers'profitability.

                      ad_hankuk.gif (81943 bytes)